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1972
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martedì, luglio 18, 2006
Notizie dal fronte/6. Edward Luttwak (non un santo della nostra devozione) si sofferma sulle probabilità di un'estensione regionale del conflitto e conclude che sono poche. La sua visione tiene conto soltanto degli elementi razionali o supposti tali mentre la politica e le guerre sono alimentate anche e soprattutto dalle componenti ideologiche, ma merita comunque una lettura anche perché dimostra che si può essere realisti senza cadere in atteggiamenti caricaturali.
Intanto China Confidential si sofferma sul ruolo della Cina: China's rogue Islamist ally, Iran, is essentially using its Lebanese terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, to attack Israel--with Chinese-designed, Iranian-manufactured missiles. The missiles are far more advanced than the old Russian Katyusha rockets Hezbollah has fired at northern Israel in previous attacks. In contrast with the Katyushas, which Iran used in its war with Iraq in the 1980s, and have a range of only five miles, the Iranian-supplied missiles reportedly have ranges of 25-60 miles. The new missiles also have more powerful payloads than the Russian rockets. The missile that stuck an Israeli warship last Friday was certainly stealthy--a C-802 antiship cruise missile, made in Iran with Chinese technology and expertise. Also known as the Noor, the radar-guided C-802 is the Iranian version of China's Jing YJ-82 missile. Iran claims the missile, which has a 60-mile range and uses a small turbojet engine in place of a solid rocket engine, can be fired from aircraft, ships, submarines, and land-based vehicles. Le lezioni della storia sull'inutilità della deterrenza nei confronti dei terroristi: Every tactic that has been deterred has been followed by by-pass tactics that usually represent an escalation. Therefore, strong military reactions do not deter, and even if they do succeed – it is only for a short period of time, to be followed by a new model that will take the army time to figure out how to fight it. In short, restoring Israel's deterrent ability with punishing blows doesn't promise much, even if it gains us some time, even if it seems that time allows us to breathe easy. So what should we strive for? Instead of deterrence – attrition. Attrition means unremitting pressure on an enemy, in all areas and using all possible means, pressing armed groups and far lesson civilians, because they cannot press and deter the extremists in their midst. This pressure should not be subject to negotiation, except for temporary tactical needs. Israele parla con una voce sola. |
A Fabio.
A Luisa.   
  Asia e dintorni Normblog |
